There is currently an area of high pressure over western Cuba, and a trough extending from the Great Lakes to the central California coast is combining to produce a southwesterly mid-level flow through the area. As disturbances roll along this flow, they trigger periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms. One of these areas is currently leaving our region and precipitation coverage has decreased significantly since midnight. A cold front was still well north of the area, north of the Arkansas-Louisiana border region. A warm/stationary front is likely near Interstate 10 early this morning. Some observation sites are reporting visibility of less than 1/2 mile this morning, and we will leave our dense fog advisories (land and sea) in place this morning.
Our frontal boundary isn’t going much anywhere over the next 24-36 hours. I’m not expecting much sun today or Tuesday, but there could still be isolated or scattered showers or storms. Tuesday night through Wednesday night is roughly a repeat of the next 36 hours, with any frontal boundary remaining north of Interstate 10. Precipitation for this period is expected to be very limited in area. A larger disturbance will move through the area Thursday and Thursday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front. There is potential for heavy rain and heavy to severe storms, so stay tuned.
Once the front moves east Thursday evening, somewhat cooler and drier weather returns at least Friday and Saturday, before bouncing back above normal levels again. A light frost would be possible Saturday morning, mainly in areas that tend to be cooler than their surrounding neighbors.