Projecting yourself into 2023 doesn’t necessarily require staring into crystal balls, throwing bones, or even consulting tarot cards. Instead, we can expect several major developments already underway to accelerate, making predictions much more reliable.
Developments likely to be important in 2023
Among the moves and jolts in security, technology, and digital trust that DigiCert expects next year is the emergence of Matter as a household standard; add more security to code signing; and your mobile device’s physical SIM card (finally) making way for a software release in another piece of arguably long overdue digitization. Another is the growing acceptance of EU standards for digital wallets and identity.
Without further ado, as you’ll no doubt hear in many Yuletide talks, we’re going to touch on developments that are likely to be important in 23:
1. The material will become a domestic standard
Thank goodness we hear you sigh, because as always with “the last thing,” there is usually a riot of standards at the start. No, not the stuff the universe is made of, but Matter, the smart home device communication standard bringing the connected device industry together. In other words, what WiFi did for the LAN, Matter can do for the smart home.
With a focus on simplification across vendors, platforms and devices, Matter has critical mass with big names such as Google, Apple, Amazon and Samsung on board with Matter, positioning the standard as a winner for consumers. and manufacturers.
We envision the Matter logo becoming the symbol of the smart home that consumers are looking for. In 2023, smart homes will have Matter-enabled devices. and it will become a recognizable standard, like Bluetooth (or WiFi).
As Matter is set to become the standard for connected home devices, compliance without delay is crucial for any device vendor. As an example of rapid adoption, Apple iOS 16 supports Matter. And that means manufacturers of connected devices won’t wait to become Matter compliant, while the Matter logo on their devices means people can expect seamless and secure connections between their favorite products.
2. Code signing will trigger a race to the cloud
While Matter is a (relatively) simple matter, code signing is not. Software developers use code signing certificates for digital verification of the integrity of applications, drivers, executables and software programs, proving they are legitimate and safe. A code signing certificate includes an individual’s signature, company name, and timestamp. Organization Validation (OV) code signing certificates prove their legitimacy.
OV code signing certificates will soon be issued on physical security hardware similar to how Extended Validation (EV) code signing certificates are issued for web security. As of June 2023, according to industry standards body SSL CA/B Forum, private keys for OV Code Signing certificates must be stored on devices that comply with FIPS 140 Level 2, Common Criteria EAL 4 + or equivalent safety standards.
We expect these changes to move customers to cloud signing in large numbers, instead of replacing their hardware token. We also foresee a cloud-based future for all code signing, as customers will prefer this to tracking a hardware key.
It is, you will agree, obvious. Why deal with hardware limitations when there is a cloud. Moreover, we are (almost) in 2023
3. Physical SIM cards will be replaced by eSIM and iSIM technology
Hardware has its limits, especially where software does the trick. The familiar Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) chip of mobile phones must be physically swapped when changing networks (or phones); how terribly analog. The new Embedded eSIM (eSIM) is an alternative but remains a physical card permanently attached to a device. It can be upgraded with a Remote SIM Provisioning (RSP) solution.
The newest is the embedded SIM (iSIM), which is much smaller and more secure than a physical SIM card. The iSIM does not require a separate processor, is considerably smaller, and is contained in a secure and trusted area inside a device’s system-on-chip (SOC) architecture. It integrates SIM functionality into the main processor of the device.
Some industry leaders, including Qualcomm and Vodafone, have demonstrated an iSIM proof-of-concept that could do away with the SIM slot altogether. Our prediction? The next generation of smartphones will remove the traditional hardware features of the SIM card and switch to eSIM and iSIM as the root of trust.
4. The EU digital identity and the European digital wallet will become the global model
It’s back to the Matter enigma, except this time for digital identity and digital money. Standardization is important.
The EU Digital Identity Wallet is an initiative of the European Commission under the eIDAS Regulation creating a unified digital identification system across Europe. The EU Digital ID Wallet will allow European citizens to carry eID versions of their official government identity documents in a secure mobile wallet application for online authentication and electronic signatures. In addition, the wallets will carry “electronic attribute attestations”, additional aspects of identity such as a professional qualification that can be presented either with the personal identity or separately. The EU has important aligned cross-border projects in financial services, education and health.
The EU is a vast area with a large population. It is standardization.
Just as Apple Pay and Google Pay have become widely adopted as a means of digital payment, the EU digital identity wallet will become the digital identity model that the rest of the world emulates. With the legal framework and policies in place for adoption on the continent, users will feel more comfortable using a digital wallet to store and share credentials when needed.
A difficult but still exciting year ahead
With all that’s happened in 2022 and the years immediately preceding it, there’s no doubt that 2023 will see a host of unexpected events, arguably making prediction season 22 one of the toughest yet. day. But the four anticipations above are highly reliable, reflecting already emerging trends. Moreover, these trends make good sense, especially when digitization offers clear benefits.
Does that mean we can’t be wrong? It’s a prediction we would never have bet money on.
Dean Coclin
Dean Coclin has over 30 years of business development and product management experience in cybersecurity, software and telecommunications. As Senior Director of Business Development at DigiCert, he is responsible for driving the company’s strategic alliances with IoT partners in the consumer security market and with other technology partners. Coclin is also the former chair of the CA/Browser forum.
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